Watch the video of this interview on Gamma Prime’s YouTube channel:
Interview with Michael Terpin (Founder and CEO at Transform Group) and Korath Wright (Director of Capital Markets at Gamma Prime)
In this exclusive Gamma Prime interview, Michael Terpin, Founder and CEO of Transform Group, known as the “Godfather of Crypto”, shares his insights into Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles, altcoin dynamics, and the future of institutional involvement in crypto.
Terpin breaks down his “Four Seasons of Bitcoin” theory — from accumulation to capitulation — and explains how predictable these cycles have become. He discusses why Bitcoin’s next all-time high could still surprise investors, what to expect from the upcoming altcoin season, and how his Bitcoin Supercycle Genesis Fund plans to strategically navigate the next market peak.
Watch as Gamma Prime’s Korath Wright dives deep into where crypto markets are heading, how to recognize turning points, and why Terpin believes we’re entering a new era of supply shocks and global adoption.
Michael Terpin (Transform Group):
My name is Michael Turpin. I’ve been in Bitcoin and crypto since early 2013. I’ve invested in and advised many companies, including during the early days of Ethereum and Tether, and CNBC once called me the “Godfather of Crypto.” I released a book called Bitcoin Supercycle last year, which has done well and is available on Amazon.
In it, I explain how Bitcoin’s four-year cycles have become increasingly predictable — yet most investors still miss out on them. I’m currently working on several projects, including a new fund.
Korath Wrigth (Gamma Prime):
Perfect. You’re deeply embedded in the crypto universe and have seen a lot of things come and go. Where do you see things heading next?
Michael:
We’re going to continue the cycle — we’re about to top out. Every four years, Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high in the fourth quarter after the halving year. We’re right there now. Starting October 1st, we enter that historically strong fourth quarter, which on average brings about an 85% run-up — sometimes even more.
Recently, we dropped from 117 to around 112, moving from 34% to 42% on the Fear and Greed Index, still showing more fear than greed. Many casual observers think Bitcoin will never return to 120 again — and they’re wrong.
I often say: when Bitcoin gets a cold, altcoins get pneumonia. The opposite is true too — when Bitcoin flies, you unleash altcoin season. There are rotations, and the next few months should be fun.
Korath:
So you think there’s going to be an altcoin season coming?
Michael:
Absolutely.
Korath:
Yeah?
Michael:
Typically, it happens after Bitcoin peaks. We’ll see how institutional involvement and ETFs affect things this time, since there’s less dominance from treasury companies. Historically, Bitcoin peaks around November or December of the year after the halving, followed by Ethereum shortly after, and then the altcoins — the final “YOLO” phase before the drop.
In the first quarter following those all-time highs, you usually get a few fake-out rallies, but it’s best to have sold in the fourth quarter. If you wait until the second quarter of next year, it’s too late — prices fall lower and lower until capitulation, which I expect to be about one-third of the final high. If Bitcoin hits 180, expect 60 next year.
Korath:
And what are some of the risks within that cycle?
Michael:
The main risk is not selling near the top — unless you’re comfortable holding forever, which isn’t a bad strategy. For example, if you bought 1,000 Bitcoin at the first halving in 2012, it would’ve cost $12,000. Today, that’s $114 million — doing nothing.
On the other hand, if you sold within 20% of the top, you still made excellent returns. The first cycle was hardest to judge — it went up 100x, then dropped 85%. I actually picked the bottom of that cycle to the day, because it was clear there were no sellers left. Everyone thought Bitcoin was going to zero.
My ex-wife told me to sell everything before it went to zero — I said no, it’s time to buy. She wasn’t a maxi. I’m not a maxi either; I’m a Bitcoin preferentialist.
Korath:
Preferentialist?
Michael:
Yes. Bitcoin maximalists believe everything that’s not Bitcoin is a scam and even think people like Vitalik should be in jail. That’s nonsense. Bitcoin doesn’t do everything. I spoke to an Ethereum maximalist recently who said Bitcoin is garbage and Ethereum is the true store of value.
To me, Bitcoin is the one asset that’s absolutely not going to zero. Ethereum could — it’s easily cloned, and some clones have actually gained traction, unlike Bitcoin forks.
Korath:
Interesting. You mentioned the first cycle was the hardest to gauge.
Michael:
Right. We didn’t know how high it could go after the initial discovery price. Satoshi wrote that as long as more Bitcoin is bought than mined every four years, the price must rise. That’s been true four times out of four.
The first halving price was $12, four years later $170 — more than 50x. Four years after that, $8,700. The next halving brought $64,000. Those halving prices have been the “Goldilocks” prices — never overbought, never oversold.
In my book, I describe this as the “Four Seasons of Bitcoin.” It goes up every four years, but not in a straight line — that’s where the myth and reality of volatility come in. Small cycles look volatile, but long-term, the pattern is remarkably consistent.
The four seasons go like this:
Bitcoin Spring: the day of the halving — miners’ profits drop sharply, yet the price holds as investors buy in for the next run.
Bitcoin Summer: starts when Bitcoin surpasses the previous cycle’s high. That’s when price discovery kicks in and it takes off like a rocket. In the first cycle, the previous high was $30, which people thought they’d never see again — it then ran to $1,200.
Over time, the returns diminish, following an S-curve of adoption. Only 4% of people own Bitcoin today, but that could rise to 60–80% in the next 20–25 years. And with 95% of all Bitcoin already mined — where will new supply come from?
Korath:
That’ll be a dramatic point on the curve.
Michael:
That’s the supercycle — when supply shock truly hits.
Korath:
How far are we from that first day of summer?
Michael:
We’ve already passed it. It happened when we surpassed the previous cycle’s high. The 2020–2024 cycle’s peak was about $68,000 in 2021, but just before the 2024 halving, we reached $73,850, then dropped to $64,000 at the halving. Some thought that meant the halving pattern was broken — it wasn’t. That was still last cycle’s peak.
It simply meant Bitcoin Summer would start at $73,000 instead of $68,000 — which it did, right on election day. I predicted in my book that if Trump won, we’d have an early November all-time high; if Kamala won, it would happen in December. I was correct.
Korath:
So it’s getting easier to predict?
Michael:
Yes.
Korath:
Easier each cycle?
Michael:
Yes. The only unpredictable part now is when the supercycle begins — when the true supply shock hits. You’ll know it when it happens. We’re already at historically low exchange reserves while demand from Bitcoin treasuries keeps growing.
Korath:
And institutional players are entering too.
Michael:
Exactly. Bitcoin’s fixed supply is the fundamental reason the price keeps rising.
Korath:
So what’s next in the cycle?
Michael:
Bitcoin Fall — the stage where you make or lose all your money. It starts when the bubble pops and ends with capitulation. If you can time both within 10%, you’ll do very well.
Korath:
And you make money by exiting the market?
Michael:
Yes. It depends how aggressive you are. In my new fund, we sell 90% within 10% of the top if possible. Then we short on the way down, use collars, options, and algorithmic trading. At the bottom, we buy 100% back in. Capitulation is actually easier to spot than the top, and you have more time to reenter.
Korath:
Can you tell me more about your new fund?
Michael:
It’s called the Bitcoin Supercycle Genesis Fund. I’ve been an LP and GP in many funds over the past decade, but this is my first as Chief Investment Officer — my baby, my narrative. I’m the majority owner, with a talented team of algorithmic programmers I’ve worked with for six years.
Korath:
Fascinating. How can people get involved?
Michael:
It’s for accredited investors only, by referral. We’re limited to 99 investors. If you know me or someone who does, I’m easy to find — on Telegram, Facebook, and Instagram.
Be careful of frauds — scammers often misspell my name and offer fake mining deals asking for Bitcoin.
You can also reach me at michael@transformventures.io or for the fund, michael@bitcoinsupercycle.fund.
Korath:
Perfect. It was a pleasure having you at the conference. What did you think of the Capital Market Summit?
Michael:
It was fantastic. You did an amazing job — I’ve seen your events evolve from smaller gatherings to hosting people like Arthur Hayes and Scaramucci. The crowd was great, and I could tell it was high quality from how many productive conversations I had right from the start.
Korath:
There was practically a teardrop of people following you around.
Michael:
That means it’s the right crowd. I can walk into some rooms and nobody knows me. At the Cannes Film Festival, where I went with my girlfriend from the entertainment industry, nobody did.
Korath:
That was shortly after we saw you in Dubai, right?
Michael:
Yes. And in the film world, I’m completely invisible.
Korath:
Amazing. We really appreciate having you here and look forward to continuing the conversation.
Michael:
I’ll see you in Denver then.
